Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Predictions on PC Leadership Race


I said it (Twitter ‘ed it actually) a couple of months ago and a few weeks ago; that I thought Alison Redford might pull off the win.  I had no basis for my prediction, it was a just a gut feeling.  Now that they are going into the second round I’m getting a clearer picture of how this might come about.

Despite umpteen current MLA’s lining up behind Gary Mar and his high percentage in the first go round, there seems to a lot of hatred out there working against him.  I think in order for Gary to win he has to achieve his 50% at the first count on October 1st.  If it goes to the second count it will go to Alison.

Here’s why (in my opinion)

Gary Mar’s supporters likely won’t put a second choice on the ballot.  They will want to avoid a “Stelmach” or “Dion” third placer coming up the middle. Redford and Horner supporters are far less likely to be worried about this; their main beef is with Gary and keeping him out of office.  They will mark a second choice. Redford supporters for Horner and vice versa.

I think Horner will be in third. This is partly based on the showing after the first round and I believe Redford has a more organized campaign. (Granted, I could just be thinking this way because I know some of the people involved and I live in Calgary where she has a greater presence.) Either way, I think his supporters will be quite comfortable in putting a ‘2’ beside Alison’s name.  She is from their current cabinet, but still new enough and she is saying the right things to offer that glimmer of hope the PC’s so desperately need.

Conversely Mar, is so many things they are trying to distance themselves from. Bussing in “supporters”; rumors of leaking a members list to media; rumors of offering plum positions to those who back him; generally old-school distasteful politics.  

Should Redford pull it off… well she will have monumental, if not impossible task ahead of her.  As I understand it Alison has the backing of a handful of MLA’s: Doug Elniski, Kyle Fawcett, Art Johnston, David Xiao and Dave Rodney.  With the exception of Rodney they are all first term MLA’s and Johnston won’t even be running in the next general election, having lost his local nomination.  She will have to regroup the other MLA’s; mostly made up of long term members who now clearly stand behind Mar, and there are a LOT of them.

If I’m wrong though and Mar wins, there are two things I’m looking forward to.
      1)      The caucus funding to the PC’s to be cut since they no longer will have a Leader in an elected position. 
      2)      Their caucus putting out press releases, but not being able to name their “yet to be elected as an MLA, Leader”.


If you aren’t familiar with the background, one might say, “That’s absurd. Why would those things happen?’ You can read it for yourself, here and here. It’s exactly what the PC’s did to the Wildrose.

PS: I don't choose the ads that display on my blog and in no way support nor endorse any candidate who might happen to show up. :)

4 comments:

  1. May I disagree that Horner's votes will place #2 by Redford's name? There is a strong ABBA presence- Anybody but Redford. I will proudly vote Mar #2

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  2. Interestingly, the rumors I had heard about the leaked media list attributed it to another candidate currently in the running.

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  3. I'm a Redford supporter, but my second choice is Horner. I tired of the old boys club where the PC party has excluded people under the age of 50 from participating fully in the democratic process. The PC party badly needs to get engaged in new communications technology and it needs to be a government that is supportive of bottom-up ideas and innovation. The City of Calgary and Nenshi are leading the way in a new model for civic engagement. The PC party badly needs to revitalize, and it can't do that when everyone endorses the favourite just to get a coveted cabinet position. If it does not do this, it will be some other party that does this more effectively and topples the PC party.

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  4. @Anonymous Sept 22 If your tired of the old boys club than Horner and Redford aren't for you. Aside from being leftist red tories, which you obviously are being a Nenshi fan.

    Doug Horner is part of the same old boys club. Look at his family history.

    His Uncle Jack Horner was a P.C. cabmin who crossed the floor to the Trudeau Liberals

    His grandfather was a Saskatchewan Senator

    His father was a P.C. M.P. and his uncles Norval and Albert were also federal P.C. M.P.'s.

    A family of red tories who been proudly entrenched in the old boys club for nearly a century.

    The Horners are nothing more than a family of nepotistic career politicians.

    We need to quit tapping the hornets nest for new recruits. I would never ever vote for someone with the last name Horner.

    Redford quite frankly has her own deep entrenched roots in the old boys club.

    There is nothing new or fresh in this leadership race. Its about as exciting as watch piss water circle toilet.

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