I said it (Twitter ‘ed it actually) a couple of months ago
and a few weeks ago; that I thought Alison Redford might pull off the win. I had no basis for my prediction, it was a
just a gut feeling. Now that they are
going into the second round I’m getting a clearer picture of how this might
come about.
Despite umpteen current MLA’s lining up behind Gary Mar and
his high percentage in the first go round, there seems to a lot of hatred out
there working against him. I think in
order for Gary to win he has to achieve his 50% at the first count on October 1st.
If it goes to the second count it
will go to Alison.
Here’s why (in my opinion)
Gary Mar’s supporters likely won’t put a second choice on
the ballot. They will want to avoid a “Stelmach”
or “Dion” third placer coming up the middle. Redford and Horner supporters are
far less likely to be worried about this; their main beef is with Gary and
keeping him out of office. They will
mark a second choice. Redford supporters for Horner and vice versa.
I think Horner will be in third. This is partly based on the
showing after the first round and I believe Redford has a more organized
campaign. (Granted, I could just be thinking this way because I know some of
the people involved and I live in Calgary where she has a greater presence.)
Either way, I think his supporters will be quite comfortable in putting a ‘2’
beside Alison’s name. She is from their
current cabinet, but still new enough and she is saying the right things to
offer that glimmer of hope the PC’s so desperately need.
Conversely Mar, is so many things they are trying to
distance themselves from. Bussing in “supporters”; rumors of leaking a members list
to media; rumors of offering plum positions to those who back him; generally
old-school distasteful politics.
Should Redford pull it off… well she will have monumental,
if not impossible task ahead of her. As
I understand it Alison has the backing of a handful of MLA’s: Doug Elniski,
Kyle Fawcett, Art Johnston, David Xiao and Dave Rodney. With the exception of Rodney they are all
first term MLA’s and Johnston won’t even be running in the next general
election, having lost his local nomination. She will have to regroup the other MLA’s; mostly
made up of long term members who now clearly stand behind Mar, and there are a
LOT of them.
If I’m wrong though and Mar wins, there are two things I’m looking
forward to.
1)
The caucus funding to the PC’s to be cut since
they no longer will have a Leader in an elected position.
2)
Their caucus putting out press releases, but not
being able to name their “yet to be elected as an MLA, Leader”.
If you aren’t familiar with the background, one might say, “That’s absurd. Why would those things happen?’ You can read it for yourself, here and here. It’s exactly what the PC’s did to the Wildrose.
PS: I don't choose the ads that display on my blog and in no way support nor endorse any candidate who might happen to show up. :)
